Two New High Schools

September 4 sees two brand new High Schools opening their doors to Warren County students, who may for once be looking forward to a return to school after the summer :). . . Both schools are completely new buildings with the latest technology, and with new playing fields. They will intially take students in grades 8 to 12.

Warren County High School, still home of the Wildcats, is moving from its present 67 year-old site, to Westminster Drive on the east side of Front Royal. It will serve broadly the north east, east, and south east areas of the County (Hilda J Barbour & Leslie Fox Keyser Elementary Schools, plus the route 522 South corridor from Ressie Jeffries ES).

Skyline High School has been built on a green field site off route 340 just south of Front Royal. SHS will be home to the Hawks, and will serve broadly the north, west, & south of the County, drawing from A.S. Rhodes ES, E.W. Morrison ES, and Ressie Jefferies ES (apart from the route 522 South corridor).

The School Board have produced a useful map showing the school zones for the new high schools and the elementary schools. You can view it here (you can zoom in for more detail).

The two new high schools mark the completion of Phase I of Warren County's 10 year school plan. Phase II will first see the old high school site at Luray Avenue refurbished and reopened as the middle school in 2008, then the current middle school on West 15th Street remodeled. The result in 2009 will be two fully refurbished middle schools taking grades 6 to 8, and feeding directly into their respective high schools for grades 9 to 12.

Phase III of the 10 year plan will see a new elementary school built, further details yet to be finalized.

Market Update & Mortgage Turmoil

Back in March I wrote that we had a quiet market. Now we are getting well through the summer, it is time to take a step back and review things. And it's not a pretty picture for sellers. Hopes of steady improvement have long since evaporated, and we are looking at a market which has already "peaked" for the summer, even though that peak was way below last year's levels.

All summer the number of homes on the market in Warren County has been hovering around 650, and as I write there are still 655 active listings, and just a further 57 homes under contract. With sales over recent months running around 40 to 55 per month, there is a 12 month supply of homes on the market, compared with around a 2 month supply before the market began to turn in July 2005.

The chart shows the trend since January 2005, with the rapid growth of active listings (blue), decline of sales (yellow), and the trend in the supply of homes on the market (red). Click on the chart to see a larger image.

The latest cause for concern is the turmoil in the mortgage market. With the increase in foreclosures, mortgage quality has become a big concern in the wholesale market where mortgages are "sold" and bundled as mortgage bonds to the investment funds (such as the one looking after your 401k). The result is that some lenders have been unable to bundle and sell their loans on, and as a result have been unable to lend new mortgages - effectively having to close shop.

Lending criteria across the board have been progressively tightened, and many people who could get a loan a few weeks ago are now unable to; many who could get 100% finance may now have to put 10% down (which may well count them out); and those looking for "no doc" or "stated income" loans may be looking in vain. In a nutshell, good quality credit is more important than ever (perhaps it always should have been?), and most of the "creative" lending has gone out of the window.

If you were pre-qualified a few weeks ago with your lender, check again before you do any more house hunting. You need to make sure that you are still on the same page with the amount that you can borrow, and the terms attached to it.

Build Them & They Will Shop!

Exciting times for Front Royal shoppers - the new Target store opened last week, along with its in-house Starbucks and Pizza Hut Express outlets. Also now open is Famous Footwear. Over the next week, Staples (Aug 4) and Petco (Aug 6) will open their doors. And very shortly, we will see TGI Fridays, Fashion Bug, GNC, Radio Shack, and Game Stop, among others, all in the Crooked Run Shopping Center.

On the other side of route 522, the huge Lowes store is taking shape. Beyond that, the future Wal-Mart is about to spring up from its leveled site, and the rest of the Riverton Commons infrastructure is taking shape amid a flurry of activity. I drove around there earlier today to take a couple of photos, and was running the gauntlet of many large vehicles, concrete trucks, earth movers, and swarms of construction workers, surveyors, and engineers.

On a sadder note, isn't it a shame to see what has happened to the home in the last picture below? A handsome brick colonial of over 3,000 sq.ft. on a nicely landscaped 5 acres, this home once looked out over gently rolling land and a 2-lane route 522 wandering north towards Winchester, with the mountains as a background. Now it looks down on all this development, with a bird's eye view of Lowes and a busy intersection which at one point is 8 lanes wide. I guess that's the price of progress.

What is a Sanitary District?

I often get puzzled looks from buyers when I explain that a home in Warren County is in a Sanitary District. What is that?

First, it is nothing to do with sanitation, in fact I have no idea where the term came from. It is basically a subdivision where, at the owners' request, the Circuit Court has conferred Sanitary District status. The "HOA Fee" is built into the real estate tax bill, and paid with the real estate taxes, then passed on to the HOA by the County.

As a result:

- there is a better rate of collection for the HOA, as owners are less likely to default on real estate taxes than HOA fees (and the County can impose a real estate lien on unpaid Sanitary District fees)

- the net cost to the owner is lower, as the payment is classed as real estate taxes and therefore normally deductible for tax (but don't take my word for it, check with your tax advisor!)

- as the payment is built into real estate taxes, it is normally part of the owner's escrow payment when he pays his mortgage

The fee is set each year by the County as part of the budgeting process, at the same time as the rate for real estate taxes. The amount varies from one Sanitary District to another, and depends on the HOA's own budget, which has to be submitted to the County.

There are currently eight Sanitary Districts in Warren County. The larger and better known ones are High Knob, Shenandoah Farms, Blue Mountain, Shenandoah Shores and Skyland Estates. The other three are Riverside, Cedarville Heights, and South River Estates.

For more detailed information, go to the following links:
   - more background, legalities, etc - Warren County Sanitary Districts
   - current Sanitary District fees - Current Sanitary District Fees

New Rates for Real Estate Taxes

Last November I posted about the tax reassessments which had everyone's emotions running high. After the dust had settled it turns out that overall tax assessments across Warren County increased by 93%. Of course, individual assessments will be higher or lower than that.

Warren County, and the town of Front Royal, have now approved their fiscal budgets for 2007, and the revised tax rates that go with them. The result is that the 2007 rate for real estate taxes in the county will be $0.45 per $100 (previously $0.82) and for the town, an additional $0.07 per $100 (previously $0.13).

Taking into account the 93% increase in assessments, this equates to average increases of 5.91% for the county, and 3.92% for the town. Of course, individual cases will vary depending on the specific change in their own tax assessment.

Real estate taxes remain very low in Warren County, Virginia. For example, a home worth around $250,000 (the median sale price of homes in the county so far this year) may have a typical tax assessment of say $220,000, and therefore real estate taxes this year of just $990 (or $1,144 if it is within the town of Front Royal) - that's less than $100 per month on the owner's escrow payment to his mortgage company. I always find that people relocating from out of state - and from many other parts of Virginia - are pleasantly surprised at the low taxes. That applies whether they are coming from an area of higher property values like New Jersey, or cheaper areas such as Ohio.

Septic Systems and Percing a Lot

If you own land outside the Front Royal town limits in Warren County, VA, it will almost certainly require a septic system before you can build, and in most cases a well. I find that there is a lot of misunderstanding and misinformation about septic systems and "percing" lots, and I spend a lot of time explaining it all to prospective buyers, or owners who want to sell their land.

So I have created a new Q & A page on my website covering the most common questions, including an overview of the process, percing costs, and the difference between conventional and alternative systems.

Check it out at Septic Systems and Percing Lots Q & A

If you are looking to sell land, whether or not it is perced, please don't hesitate to contact me to talk it through.

I have several very nice parcels of land on the market, priced from $65,000 to $199,900 to suit all budgets and tastes, check them all out, including pictures, plats etc, at: Land & Building Lots

Transport for Commuters

I am often asked what transportation help is available for commuters from the Front Royal & Warren County area to northern Virginia and Washington, DC.

The Valley Commuter Assistance Program (VCAP) provides help in a number of ways, including free ride-matching for commuters looking to pool cars through their Rideshare program. This program covers the Counties of Warren, Page, Shenandoah, Clarke and Fredrick, along with the City of Winchester. Funding is provided by the State, with some contribution from the individual jurisdictions that it serves.

There are also commercial bus pooling and van pooling arrangements, and Park & Ride lots near exit 6 (Front Royal) and exit 13 (Linden) of I-66, to provide more secure parking for those sharing rides.

Further details on all the above, along with contact points, can be found on the Valley Commuter Assistance Program web site.

New Shopping Centers for Front Royal

Anyone who last traveled route 522 north of exit 6 of I-66 a couple of years ago, will be astonished at the changes now taking shape. It started with the creation of the Blue Ridge Shadows championship golf course, now with a Holiday Inn & conference center being constructed alongside the highway. But more significantly, we are now seeing the development of two out of town retail parks, a first for Warren County.


Crooked Run Shopping Center (on the west side of 522) and Riverton Commons (on the east) have been in the development stage for some time, but will come to life with the opening of the new Target store this coming July on Crooked Run, followed closely by PetCo, Staples, Fashion Bug, Famous Footwear and TGI Fridays. By early 2008, Riverton Commons will be welcoming Wal-Mart, Lowes and others, which so far apparently include several eating places like Crackerbarrel, Chic Fil-A, Checkers and Starbucks. Yes, Front Royal, Virginia will have arrived - we will have a Starbucks

What's more, a third retail park - bigger than these two combined - is in the pipeline off Rockland Rd, a mile or so further north. I understand it will be a couple of years before we see major developments there, but you can probably begin to think of some of the major retail names who will no doubt be looking for a share of the spoils.

Virginia Wine & Craft Festival

Don't miss the 21st Annual Virginia Wine & Craft Festival, to be held Saturday May 19, 2007 in historic downtown Front Royal, in Warren County, Virginia.

The main downtown area of Front Royal - The Commons, Chester St, & East Main St - is cordoned off to leave a delightful area for visitors to roam and mingle. Wine producers and skilled crafters come from all over Virginia, and in addition there are many local Warren County businesses and organizations represented, and lots of fun, games and rides for the kids.

Musical entertainment is at the gazebo in The Commons, and on the Court House lawn. At the gazebo will be popular local Beatles cover band Glass Onion (from 10 am to 1 pm), and Texas Chainsaw Horns (2 pm to 5.30 pm), a band blending soul, funk, rock and country. In front of the Court House will be Bill Dykes & The Beatnik Night Players (bluegrass/jazz variety) from 12 pm to 2 pm.

Admission is $12 in advance, $18 at the gate - for that, you get all the wine tasting you want. If you don't want to join in the wine tasting, admission is just $2, with kids aged under 6 free.

Advance tickets may be purchased from the Warren County Chamber of Commerce, call (540) 635-3185.

This is a great event with a fantastic buzz - if you are new to Warren County or haven't been to the event before, make it a priority!

A Quiet Market in Warren County

Yes, we all know the market has been tough over the past 18 months, with prices falling in Warren County and surrounding areas during the last 8 or 9 months of 2006 in particular. The indications are that prices may have now leveled out, and with mortgage rates staying low, there has been cause for cautious optimism that the buyers will come out of their shells as they begin to feel more comfortable.

But what I am now seeing is a series of new listings coming on to the market with inflated prices, suggesting that the sellers believe we are about to embark on a bouyant market. Have I missed something? Please tell me, where is the evidence? Year to date unit sales in Warren County are 18% down on this time last year, and homes under contract are a whopping 38% down.

Even more worrying, there are again nearly 500 homes on the market in the county (492 in fact, 37% up on last year and more than three times the number from 2 years ago ), and I'm looking out at several more inches of fresh snow as I write, so I'm sure we are still in the winter. Based on the sales in the first 2 months of the year, that is a massive 15 months supply. If you want your home to sell, it has to stand out against the many others that it is competing with. It is not a market for "let's try it at that price and see if we get any bites".

So yet again, I am going to get on my soap box and preach. Here goes . . . it doesn't matter how much you WANT for your home, or how much you NEED for it. The market will dictate the price, and if you don't show willing to meet the market (with a realistic asking price), then the market won't come to meet you. Overpriced homes will not be shown, or at best, the wrong people will be viewing the home, as they will be expecting more for their money.

It has been a hard lesson for many over the past 18 months, but it seems there are still those who haven't learned from it. So come on folks - you know who you are - get real, and price your home as if you mean to sell it. You do want to sell it, don't you?